实时追踪全球外汇、黄金、加密货币市场动态
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The move higher in JGB yields, led by a record high on the five year and the highest two year print since May 1995, reflects markets pricing a firmer case for further Bank of Japan tightening as impor
Hatzius's forecast, a headline print around 0.05% month on month and core near 0.19%, would sit in line with or slightly below consensus and reinforce the softer trend he says began in June, a read th
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The improvement in both readings, and particularly the jump in the chemicals and metal and machinery sub-indexes, points to semiconductor supply chain strength continuing to broaden out across Japan's
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U.S. markets are wrapping up Tuesday with stocks mostly lower, Treasury yields modestly lower across most of the curve, and the U.S. dollar little changed against the major currencies. The session was
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Not much of note here.Japanese markets retrun from a holiday Tuesday (that stretched to a long weekend for many in the markets!). This article was written by Eamonn Sherida
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High yield 4.291% WI level at the time of the auction 4.296% Tail -0.5 basis points versus average of 0.0%. Bid to cover 2.71X versus 6 month average of 2.61XIndirects (overseas buyers)&nb
The latest EIA outlook includes a notable upward revision to crude oil price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027, while also adjusting its expectations for global supply and demand. The agency also highl
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As London/European traders head for the exits, the major European equity indices are closing mixed, but Germany's DAX and Spain's Ibex stand out after closing at new record highs. The DAX rose 0.26%,
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Prior was 4.09m (revised to 4.13m)Sales -1.7% vs -2.4% prior (revised to -1.4%)Home prices +2.0% y/yMedian price $434,100Inventory at 4.6 months vs 4.6 months priorThe housing market is in a steady st
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Prior was 15.0KFor the four weeks ending July 25, 2026, US private employers added an average of 8,250 jobs a week down from 15,000 last week.What is this release?Initiated in late 2025, ADP releases
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US July NFIB small business optimism index 99.8 vs 97.5 expectedAnother cargo ship reportedly struck by the Houthis in the Red SeaUK stats office to only decide in July next year on plausibility of tr
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Prior was 97.4Full report hereOptimism among US small business owners strengthened further in July, with the NFIB index rising 2.4 points to 99.8. The reading moved above the index’s 52-year average o
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Maritime security sources and coast guards in the region are reporting that a cargo ship has been targeted in the Red Sea, in the Bab al-Mandab strait. The sources are reporting that the deck of the c
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Italy’s trade balance recorded a €4.23 billion surplus in June 2026, with both exports and imports increasing on a monthly and annual basis, according to seasonally adjusted data.Exports rose 1.6% m/m
This builds on the previous story here: ONS to only lay groundwork for labour market statistical improvements in AugustFor some backdrop, this has been an ongoing issue for well over three years
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EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French trade balance and Swiss consumer confidence. The data is not going to
EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we just have the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index which is expected at -0.5 vs -3.1 in the prior month. This is never a market-moving release and it w
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Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeRupee set to open weaker as oil pressure builds, RBI support in focusSources: BoJ could raise rates again at September 17-18 meet
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The NAB survey points to an economy holding up better than feared but still operating under the shadow of elevated uncertainty, a combination that gives the RBA little reason to shift from its expecte
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This is a domestic political story with limited direct market relevance at this stage. The NZD reaction is likely to be muted given no policy or fiscal outcome is yet at stake, only leadership specula
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The UK consumer data paints a mixed picture that will matter for the sterling and gilt outlook heading into upcoming inflation and retail sales releases. BRC's headline retail sales growth slowing to
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Singapore's sharp upgrade to its 2026 growth forecast, more than doubling the top end of its previous range, signals that the AI investment boom is now doing more work in the region's growth outlook t
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Previews of today's Reserve Bank of Australia decision are here:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Previe
Fed's Hammack: Now is the time to bring more restraint into policyTrump says he is demanding compensation from Iran for people killedIt's time to start the countdown on Atlantic hurricane seasonUS Jul
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Prior was 106.69 (revised to 106.74)Notably, this index flagged some weakness last month and that proved to be prescient (or lucky) as the weakness showed up in Friday's non-farm payrolls report."The
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Headlines:The USD is at a crossroads ahead of CPI, while the AUD awaits RBA rate decisionIran foreign ministry reaffirms that there are no negotiations with the US currentlyOil prices trim losses on d
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We are only exchanging messages with the US via intermediariesThere are no negotiations taking place currentlyOnly negotiations are with Oman, and they are constructive and positiveNot seeking to impo
August Sentix investor confidence 0.9 vs -0.5 expectedPrior -3.1Euro area investor sentiment continues to recover in August, with the index returning to positive territory for the first time since Feb
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ICYMI - Citi lifts Q3 Brent forecast to 80 dollars as Iran war drags onKosdaq circuit breaker triggered as Korean tech stocks surge. Kospi, Nikkei rise.RBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA
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Mon: BoJ Summary of OpinionsTue: RBA AnnouncementWed: German Final Inflation (Jul), IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Jul)Thu: Norges Bank Announcement, UK GDP (Q2), US PPI (Jul)Fri:&nbs
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前值: | 预期: | 实际: -
前值: | 预期: | 实际: -
前值: | 预期: | 实际: -
前值: 4.35% | 预期: 4.35% | 实际: -
Softer than expected CPI and PPI readings reinforce the picture of a two-speed Chinese economy, with strong exports and factory output offset by weak domestic demand, adding to the case for the accele
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US July non-farm payrolls -23K vs +80K expectedCanada July employment change +75.1K vs +15K expectedCanada and the US discussing tariff relief dealFed's Barkin: We are in a zero-to-modest gain jobs en
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One year inflation 3.6% vs 3.7%Three year inflation unchanged at 3.3%Five year inflation unchanged at 3.0%Current and expected personal finances improvedLabor market expectations were mixedNo big surp
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Prior month +18.2KUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.5% expectedPrior 6.5%Full-time employment +38.6K vs +0.6K priorPart-time employment +36.6K vs +17.5K priorParticipation rate 65.1% vs 65.0% priorAverage h
Prior was +57K (revised to +20K)Two-month net revision -103KMay was +129KUnemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.2%Unrounded unemployment 4.0900% vs 4.1889% priorParticip
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Headlines:All eyes on the US jobs report nowWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Gold stays supported amid Middle East de-escalation, but the US CPI could erase the gainsTrump says a r
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The non-farm payrolls release is the only game in town for markets today, with little else to distract from it. US-Iran developments remain uncertain, awaiting the Strait of Hormuz arrangement between
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A rate hike is not completely up to WarshHe's got a board that' very political It's up to the boardI think Warsh is great, I won't criticize himSpeaking in an interview with Punchbowl News, Trump said
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The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reactio
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Traders cite intervention to support the the Indian rupeeBeijing's export engine holds up on AI demand despite fresh US tariffs - July exports beat forecastsAsian stocks slide as Middle East jitters h
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The stronger than expected export print, even as growth cooled from June's pace, suggests China's manufacturing base is still finding external demand to lean on despite a soft domestic consumption bac
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China July 2026 trade data, just the numbers. I'll have more to come on this separatelyChina July US dollar-denominated:Exports +23.0% y/y (expected +22.2% y/y, prior +27.0%)Imports +27.5% y/y (e
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Just a data post ... pretty weak data too!I'll have more to come on this separately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The scale of the miss, a 6.4% month-on-month drop against an expected 3.1% decline, weakens the case for a September Bank of Japan hike by casting doubt on the strength of domestic demand even as real
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Treasury yields moved sharply higher on Thursday, with the two-year note rising more than 7 basis points and the benchmark 10-year yield climbing nearly 6 basis points to 4.67%. The move was fueled by
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Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed president, speaks soon. He has recently turned more hawkish, now favouring earlier, gradual rate hikes over "later, larger, abrupt" moves, citing eroding inflation credi
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What's expected:Consensus estimate +80K (range +10K to +140K)June +57%Private consensus estimate +78KUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% priorParticipation rate consensus 61.5% priorPri
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Trump is just out with a message:The Fake News, as usual, is spreading false and completely unfounded rumors. I am extremely happy with the job that Pete Hegseth is doing. Everything has been extrao
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Fars is reportingIran is reportedly drafting a strategic plan that would restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels linked to the United States, Israel, and other countries it considers
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Prior was +0.3%Sales -3.0% vs +2.2% expectedPrior sales 3.4% (revised to 3.5%)That's a disappointing read on sales but this report isn't a market mover. This article was wr
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Prior was 2.3%Productivity +1.4% vs +0.6% expectedPrior productivity was +0.8%This isn't really a useful report because productivity is so hard to measure and it's often revised many times. In theory,
Prior week initial jobless claims 197K revised to 198KInitial jobless claims 199K vs 202K estimate4-week MA of initial jobless claims 198.75K vs 203.25K last week. Prior week continuing claims 1.
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Headlines:Gold sees early gains ease but buyers stay in a good spot in second half of the weekEquities take a step back as investors can't shake off AI spending concernsS&P 500 soars to record hig
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July layoffs 33,429Prior 45,849US-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in July, which marks a 27% decline compared to the 45,849 layoffs announced in May. The July figure is also the lo
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June retail sales -0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expectedPrior +0.2%; revised to +0.4%June retail sales +0.7% vs +1.0% y/y expectedPrior +1.6%; revised to +1.9%Euro area retail sales disappointed in June amid a b
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July construction PMI 44.7 vs 40.0 expectedPrior 38.4The downturn in the UK construction sector eased in July as all three main categories recorded a slower drop in business activity. Meanwhile, new o
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Italy's industrial sector lost momentum in June, with production declining on a monthly basis after posting modest gains during the second quarter. Italy's seasonally adjusted industrial producti
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July construction PMI 42.1Prior 44.8The construction downturn in Germany deepens in July, with firms recording further declines in total activity and new orders. The only bright spot was a r
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June industrial orders +3.1% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior +1.9%; revised to +0.3%The bump higher in June comes after a big downwards revision to the May figure, with the German stats office noting that
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More re Fed's Daly - supported decision to hold rates steady at July FOMC meetingAsian tech stocks tumble as AI spending fears hit Nikkei, KOSPIAustralian June trade surplus AU$1.929bn (deficit 1.1bn
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Just the data this post:Balance of Trade 1.929bn AUDexpected 1.1bn, prior -2.367bn Imports -0.2% m/mprior +2.6%Exports +9.6% m/mprior -6.9% This article was written
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The scale of the refund underscores how significant the Supreme Court's February ruling has been for importers, with more than half of the $166 billion collected under the struck down tariffs now retu
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US July ISM services index 54.1 vs 54.5 expectedUS July ADP national employment +44K vs +70K expectedUS S&P Global services final PMI 54.6 vs 53.6 prelimFed's Kashkari: Would rather get going with
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Prior was 54.0Prices paid 70.3 vs 67.7 priorNew orders 57.2 vs 55.1 priorEmployment 47.4 vs 51.2 priorBusiness activity 59.1 vs 55.4 priorThe S&P Global final PMI for July was released shortly bef
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Prelim was 53.6Prior was 51.2Composite index 54.5 vs 53.6 prelimPrior composite index 51.9The ISM services report is due at the top of the hour and expected at 54.5 vs 54.0 previously. This is a sign
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Prior was +98K (revised to 95K)Details:Goods -3K versus +2K last monthServices +47K versus +96K last monthSmall business K vs +53K priorMedium businesses K vs +29K last monthLarge businesses K vs +25K
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Headlines:What a difference a week makes in Wall StreetThis may be one of the most important charts in the stock market nowUS president Trump on Iran situation: Things are moving along very nicelyIran
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June PPI -0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expectedPrior +0.2%Euro area producer prices came in lower in June, matching estimates with a drop of 0.3% on the month. That being said, there is a big caveat to the figur
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Prior 48.8Final Composite PMI 52.2 vs 52.1 prelimPrior 49.3Key findings:Business activity rises for first time in three months Marginal rebound in new orders Slowest increase in input costs since Febr
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July final services PMI 49.6 vs 49.8 prelimPrior 46.8July final composite PMI 49.4 vs 49.6 prelimPrior 47.2After a struggling second quarter, the start of the third quarter is at least seen looking be
July final services PMI 51.7 vs 51.6 prelimPrior 49.4July final composite PMI 52.0 vs 51.9 prelimPrior 50.0The final estimate here reaffirms a solid rebound in euro area business activity to start the
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Prior 50.2Composite PMI 52.5 vs 50.8 priorKey findings:Italian service sector sees strongest growth in new business of the year so farAccelerated growth in activity and new business Jobs added at quic
Prior 48.6Final Composite PMI 51.3 vs 51.2 prelimPrior 49.5Key findings:Service sector moves closer to stabilisation as demand picks upBusiness activity falls only fractionally in July New business ri
July services PMI 58.3 vs 54.9 expectedPrior 54.2July composite PMI 56.5Prior 53.3That's quite the beat with Spain services activity growing strongly in July, with the headline estimate being the high
July final services PMI 49.6 vs 49.8 prelimPrior 46.8July final composite PMI 49.4 vs 49.6 prelimPrior 47.2After a struggling second quarter, the start of the third quarter is at least seen looking be
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We are neither dovish nor hawkishIt's out endeavor to bring inflation in line with target over the medium termQuite possible going forward that as tensions de-escalate that Rupee may strengthenMonetar
July services PMI 58.3 vs 54.9 expectedPrior 54.2July composite PMI 56.5Prior 53.3More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
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There was an all-day negotiation on TuesdayThe negotiations were goodWill hit Iran really hard if there is no dealIt's very on the surface stuff but you get the point. As mentioned previously, we've s
More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Follow up - Kiwi dips as jobless rate climbs ahead of RBNZ's September decisionGold climbs for third day as Hormuz deal hopes ease inflation fears, holds above $4,100US, Iran and Oman near interim dea
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The incident carries limited direct market relevance but sits within a broader pattern of scrutiny on Reagan National Airport traffic protocols following the fatal January 2025 midair collision there,
The scale of the deceleration, from 54.1 to 50.4, is the sharpest single-month drop highlighted in the release and pushes the headline reading to its lowest since September 2024, a signal likely to re
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The scale of the monthly decline, the largest since November 2022, signals a meaningful reset in New Zealand's export commodity backdrop after several months of relative strength, though the index rem
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The combination of softening services growth and near-record selling price increases points to a stagflation-adjacent dynamic that is likely to keep pressure on the Bank of Japan to continue tightenin
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Six consecutive months of real wage growth strengthens the argument for the Bank of Japan to continue normalising policy, particularly with base salary growth accelerating rather than the gain being d
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The renewed rise in new orders, the first in five months, alongside the composite index's jump to its fastest expansion pace since January, points to a domestic recovery gaining genuine traction rathe
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The jobless rate climbing to an 11-year high alongside a bigger than expected rise in the participation rate points to a labour market where more people are looking for work than the economy is curren
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The jobs report from New Zealand and China's private survey services PMI are the headlines for data on the session ahead. NZ unemployment is expected to reach a near 11 year high, Middle East fig
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US June factory orders -0.3% vs +0.2% expectedJOLTs job openings 7.359M vs 7.400M estimate. Lower than last month.Rubio: There's been progress on reopening Strait. Nothing final but hoping agreement
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The optimistic view on this is that Israel and Lebanon are working on a deal to withdraw Israeli forces from Southern Lebanon. That was one of the major sticking points in the prior US-Iran deal and c